Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
